
In logic, what does the term “Argument from Incredulity“ mean, and how does it apply to employment-law trial lawyers handling workplace disputes? Here’s my point of view.
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Argument from Incredulity in Employment-Discrimination Litigation
Employment-discrimination cases often turn on what a decision-maker knew, believed, or intended. Because those questions rarely come with direct evidence, trial attorneys must build their arguments from documents, testimony, chronology, and reasonable inferences. One logical fallacy that can quietly undermine that process is the argument from incredulity.
What Is an Argument from Incredulity?
An argument from incredulity occurs when someone rejects a proposition simply because they cannot imagine, understand, or believe how it could be true.
In its simplest form:
“I cannot see how that could have happened, so it must not have happened.”
The problem is that a person’s inability to understand an explanation is not itself evidence that the explanation is false. In legal proceedings, this distinction is especially important because jurors and lawyers must evaluate evidence rather than substitute personal intuition for proof.
video Example: Argument from Incredulity
How It Can Arise in Employment-Discrimination Cases
Employment-discrimination litigation frequently involves competing explanations for an employment decision. An employer may contend that a termination, demotion, hiring decision, or disciplinary action resulted from a legitimate, nondiscriminatory reason*. The employee may argue that the stated reason is pretextual* and that discrimination played a role.
An argument from incredulity can arise when either side treats an apparently difficult-to-explain fact as dispositive.
For example, a defense attorney might argue:
“If the supervisor really discriminated against the employee, why would the supervisor have given the employee a positive performance review six months earlier?”
That question may be relevant. But the fact that the attorney finds the alleged discrimination difficult to reconcile with the earlier review does not establish that discrimination was impossible. The significance of the review must be evaluated alongside the rest of the evidence.
Conversely, a plaintiff’s attorney might argue:
“There is no way a manager could have made this decision without knowing about the employee’s protected characteristic.”
Again, the attorney’s belief about what the manager must have known is not a substitute for evidence establishing knowledge.
The Trial Lawyer’s Better Approach: Evidence, Not Imagination
The antidote to an argument from incredulity is to identify the evidentiary basis for the inference being urged.
Instead of arguing that a competing explanation is simply unbelievable, counsel can examine questions such as:
-
- What did the decision-maker actually know at the relevant time?
- What documents or communications corroborate that knowledge?
- Does the employer’s explanation remain consistent with contemporaneous records?
- Did similarly situated employees receive comparable treatment?
- Did the employer follow its ordinary procedures?
- Did the stated reason change over time?
- Is there evidence supporting or contradicting the employer’s explanation?
- What reasonable inferences can a factfinder draw from the chronology?
These questions move the analysis from “I cannot believe that” to “What does the evidence show?”
Implications for Depositions and Cross-Examination
The distinction can be particularly useful during depositions and cross-examination. Counsel may encounter testimony that appears implausible or internally inconsistent. The temptation is to ask a witness, in effect, “Do you really expect anyone to believe that?”
A more productive examination ordinarily identifies the facts that make the testimony difficult to reconcile with the record.
For example, rather than relying on incredulity, counsel might establish that a decision-maker received a particular email, reviewed a particular performance document, and then made a decision that the witness now claims was based on something else. The resulting contradiction comes from the evidence itself.
That approach also gives the factfinder a concrete basis for drawing an inference rather than asking the factfinder to adopt counsel’s personal reaction to the testimony.
Closing Argument
Recognizing the argument from incredulity does not mean that implausible testimony should be accepted uncritically. Lawyers routinely ask factfinders to assess whether an explanation is credible. The important distinction is between demonstrating why an explanation is inconsistent with the evidence and asserting that it cannot be true because it seems unbelievable.
For employment-discrimination trial attorneys, that distinction can sharpen both advocacy and analysis. Strong cases are generally built by connecting the requested inference to admissible evidence, chronology, credibility, and the governing legal standard—not merely to what counsel or the jury finds difficult to imagine.
In litigation, “I can’t believe it” may be a starting point for investigation. It is rarely the evidence itself.
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» Law & Logic: Argumentum Ad Ignorantium (Appeal to Ignorance)
» Law & Logic: Argumentum Ad Populum
» Law & Logic: Argumentum Ad Vercundiam (Appeal to Authority)
» Law & Logic: Complex Question (False Dilemma)
» Law & Logic: Confirmation Bias & Sunk Cost Fallacy
» Law & Logic: Conjunction Fallacy
» Law & Logic: Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc (False Cause)
» Law & Logic: Fallacy of the Inverse (Denying the Antecedent)
» Law & Logic: Halo Effect and Gambler’s Fallacy
» Law & Logic: Ignoratio Elenchi (Irrelevant Conclusion)
» Law & Logic: Petitio Principii (Circular Reasoning)
» Law & Logic: Proper Reasoning (Valid Logic)
» Law & Logic: Single Cause Fallacy (Complex Cause)
» Law & Logic: The False Compromise
» Law & Logic: The Straw Man Fallacy
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–gw







